Bitcoin – BTC

14th June 2022

On the daily chart we see the development of the corrective Cycle II. Now into the second half of the final downleg. A small bounce at the 0.786 level with the target of $12215 for wave [A] is anticipated with this projection, which sees the prospect of a complex structure for Cycle II.

14th June 2022
Trick shot

10th May 2022

Following on from the previous chart, this 5-hourly view of BTC/USD examines the progress of the (corrective) 3rd Primary wave of the second Cycle. My approach is that the pattern can be seen as either a series of 3-wave ABC’s or with 5-wave impulsive A’s and C’s using a best fit approach. Larger order waves tend towards the 5-3-5 structure. In this case the first intermediate wave (A) is deduced from a 3-3-3 pattern. In a 5-wave view this would be the 3rd leg which tends to be the largest one. The size of the bounce will sway the best fit take for this (A) wave.

10th May 2022

9th May 2022

This weekly chart of BTC/USD adopts the classic view for the first Cycle following the lower low of what is now seen as the C-wave of the second Cycle. An equal legs pattern targets 12215.

9th May 2022

17th March 2022

On this daily chart we see that the first Cycle ended with an exhaustion as described by the relatively small Intermediate 5th wave. The corrective Cycle has apparently adopted the classic dimension of the previous lower order 4th wave. The initial action within the new 1st Primary wave of the 3rd Cycle shows a period of consolidation with uncertainty which can cause a crumble unless there is an improvement of the related sentiment.

17th Mar 2022

31st January 2022

Indications of an imminent turning point are there. A break out and test often provides a reliable form of confirmation. Another lower low can also produce a positive divergence to support a falling wedge reversal set up.

31st January 2022

23rd January 2022

The probability of a Primary degree 3rd wave extension with an obtuse degree of volatility is examined. The daily chart follows the corrective wave [4] as it produces a 5-3-5 pattern and a sub 20 RSI.

23rd January 2022

9th January 2022

This analysis notes that [4] is 0.786 of [2] and projects from this to suggest that wave [3] of Cycle III is next up.

9th January 2022

Kakistocracy – Government by the least qualified or most unprincipled citizens (from the Greek kakistos “worst.”) = similar concept to how South Africa does it.

9th December

Looking into Primary wave [5] there is a lack of alternation between (2) and (3)y which leans towards the extension of Intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (4) appears to be concluded. Provided, of course that Primary wave [5] is not already concluded.

9th December 2021

28th October

The progress yoyos sideways and suggests that the transition is of the higher order.

28th October 2021

22nd October

This 4-hourly chart for BTC/GBP shows the assessed follow on action from the daily chart of 18th September (further below). The chart displays the extension of Primary wave [3] where Intermediate wave (3) is in progress. The possibility of further extension of Intermediate wave (3) from here cannot be ruled out. A new high has been achieved which confirms that a standard 5-3 pattern is effective.

22nd October 2021

18th September

This daily chart of BTC/USD treats the forex pair as it would a commodity from an Elliott wave perspective. Whilst this approach has been textbook so far there is yet an opportunity for an ABC repetition pattern to supplant the standard 5-3 wave structure. The former would see a bearish condition with further downside ahead here, whilst the latter is now negotiating Intermediate wave (2) of Primary wave [5]. But this chart action could also be my preference of an ultra bullish extending Primary wave [3].

18th September 2021
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